It has been a while since I have done one of these, as my life in the United States has become so busy that I have not been able to regularly write about news and things of interest to me. But, sometimes, like when a parent whose kid scrapes by with marks of only around 50 per cent in the arts while excelling in the trades inexplicably gets a 90 or higher on a book report, I found myself forced to really think about Premier Danielle Smith and the referendum that’s not really a referendum (it feels a bit South Park–like in a certain pathetic way of trying to please all, TBH). Like that parent, I am stunned and a little bit amused.
To begin with, the Stay Free Alberta movement appears on the surface to be no different than other separatist movements which have cropped up in the province and other parts of Canada. It attracts kooks, crazies, and your generally creepy people in combination with a few frustrated and generally common folk who have lost faith in Canada getting better and working out any of its many lingering problems. Were I still a resident, you could probably count me among that last bunch (that is, if you like me and don’t think I am something of a high-and-mighty goober, mind you), but, unlike others in the province and Canada overall, I still think, if this first referendum ends up going their way, they could succeed and truly get to secede.
Now, deep patriots like my friend and brother, who I dearly miss, named Josh Thomas, would tell you to look at polls. They will say the numbers just are not there and that if a province did try to leave the nation, the federal government would somehow find the ruthlessness it has barely exhibited in sternly worded statements and letters over the past 50 or more years and mobilize the armed forces to efficiently and quickly put something like this down. To be fair, the numbers seem to be right as of this column’s publication (a recent survey from Ipsos Group S.A. found those sampled who are currently in favor of binding separation in Alberta to be just 18 per cent of the population), but the patriots are also ignoring just how badly data science has been shattered since 2016, and there are many recent examples across several Canadian contests.
If data reports were always right, the Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador would not have been routed in the province’s 2025 election by 11 points, Vancouver’s mayoral election in 2022 would have actually been neck-and-neck, and the Ontario Liberal Party would have been a stable, official one after the contest there in 2018. Ultimately, it’s not 1995 when the last Quebec referendum happened anymore. People are angrier, more susceptible to crazy, thanks to the rise of the internet and social media, and, really, is anyone going to share their true intentions with a stranger on an unpaid and lengthy survey?
I don’t think so. People barely have the attention spans these days to read a book which does not have pictures in it, let alone the ability to say how they truly feel. Then, there are the foreign clouds on the horizon, gathering strength like a new virus.
Excluding President Donald Trump and his open rhetoric and private designs on having Canada be the 51st state to join the United States, Russia has also been reported by CBC News to have an interest in Schrodinger’s referendum and the potential for another referendum down the road. Again, to be fair here, there have been announcements of monitoring of the campaign by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, and Smith’s office has said she is getting intelligence briefings about the issue, but this is also a country where agents from India and actual regime officials from Iran have been able to successfully kill people and live openly despite bans on their presence. So, nothing’s exactly being defended by a better version of Batman here. Instead, it’s more like Droopy Dog if he were only half-asleep and had at least one of his eyes fixed.
I would love to go on and on, but, again, busy life and all, so I will leave with this: ultimately, Canada and Alberta’s theoretical secession and the campaign surrounding it is a dramatic comedy, a Bojack Horseman of politics in a half-asleep society if you will. There’s a referendum on having a referendum from a “leader” who is afraid of a subset of her voters, decades of deeply unserious and inept Conservative Party of Canada leadership, which has allowed Liberal arrogance to put out policies counterproductive to the common good, and a collection of “elbows up” idiots who will defend a status quo which is not fine just out of a desire to not seem disloyal to stunning mediocrity which can seem sterling compared to some parts of America.
Things are simply not okay. Canada and Alberta are not great. If they were, I would not be checking in to see what condition the referendum that is not a referendum and a possible secession is in, and would keep living life with my lovely nice wife.
Evan J. Pretzer 